Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) said its third-quarter performance benefited from higher copper sales, favorable metals pricing and continued progress in restoring production at its Grasberg operations in Indonesia, while operating challenges in the U.S. and Chile prompted a modest reduction in its 2026 copper-sales outlook.
Chairman Richard Adkerson described the company’s outlook as increasingly favorable because of anticipated copper demand tied to electrification, power-grid investment, data centers and transportation. He also said Indonesian leaders have expressed support for extending Freeport’s operating rights beyond 2041, with the company continuing to work with the Ministry of Energy and Mines to implement a memorandum of understanding reached with the government.
“The world requires a lot more copper, and supplies are challenged,” Adkerson said, adding that Freeport’s long-lived assets and financial position leave it “well-positioned to capture this opportunity.”
Third-quarter gains and revised sales outlook
President and Chief Executive Officer Kathleen Quirk said copper sales increased for the third consecutive quarter and are expected to be strongest in the fourth quarter. She said the company achieved a 67% ramp-up rate at Grasberg during the third quarter and expects the mine’s recovery to drive meaningful volume growth in 2027.
Freeport’s U.S. mining operating income more than doubled from the year-earlier quarter, contributing to an increase of more than 80% in consolidated net income, Quirk said. The company has returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders year to date, including $300 million in share purchases.
However, Freeport reduced its 2026 copper-sales estimate by about 2%, reflecting lower-than-expected production in the U.S. and Chile. Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Maree Robertson said the company also reduced its 2027 copper-sales estimate by approximately 2.5% based on current mine-plan updates, while maintaining its 2028 estimate. Gold and molybdenum sales forecasts were unchanged for the three-year period.
For the fourth quarter, Freeport expects copper sales to rise 17% from third-quarter levels and gold sales to nearly triple. The company expects copper sales to grow by more than 20% in 2027 from 2026 levels, followed by another 10% increase in 2028. Gold volumes are projected to rise more than 50% in 2027 and 20% in 2028.
Grasberg ramp-up remains central to growth
At Grasberg, Freeport is upgrading the material-handling system supporting its automated rail operations and expects the work to wrap up around the end of 2026 and early 2027. Robertson said production should build through 2027, with the first quarter likely to be the lowest of the year and the second half stronger than the first.
Freeport continues to target operation at 80% of mine capacity by mid-2027 and near-full capacity by the end of 2027. The company also plans to restart Block 1 South production in 2027. Both Indonesian smelters have resumed operations to support the mine ramp-up.
Management said dry weather conditions in Indonesia have generally aided mining but have limited water availability for mill throughput. Freeport said it has managed the issue with limited impacts so far and expects conditions to normalize in 2027.
Robertson said roughly $240 million of third-quarter idle-facility and recovery costs at Grasberg were primarily fixed costs rather than expenses that will disappear after the mine returns to full production. Beginning in 2027, those costs are expected to be reflected in all-in unit costs rather than accounted for separately, while higher volumes are expected to lower unit costs.
U.S. leaching and Bagdad expansion plans
Freeport is pursuing higher production and lower costs at its U.S. mines through increased mining rates, upgraded equipment, automation and leaching technology. Quirk said extreme weather disrupted operating momentum in the third quarter and continued into the fourth quarter.
The company is testing proprietary additives designed to improve copper recoveries from low-grade ore stockpiles. Quirk said initial additives have performed in line with, or slightly better than, laboratory expectations, while a next-generation additive has shown laboratory recoveries more than four times higher than the initial additive. Commercial quantities are expected to be available for field testing in 2027.
Freeport forecasts leach production of more than 200 million pounds in 2026 and 300 million pounds in 2027 and 2028. Management said the longer-term aspiration to reach 800 million pounds by 2030 is not included in the company’s formal forecast and depends on field-test results and efforts to raise stockpile temperatures.
The company also expects to make an investment decision in the fourth quarter on a proposed Bagdad mine expansion in Arizona. Quirk said the project is estimated at about $4.5 billion in current dollars and could take approximately 3.5 years from a final decision to complete. The expansion could add roughly 200 million to 250 million pounds of annual copper production and 10 million to 12 million pounds of molybdenum output, while more than doubling concentrator capacity.
Costs, capital spending and shareholder returns
Robertson said higher energy costs, particularly diesel, increased 2026 costs by about $500 million compared with 2025. Sulfuric acid prices have more than doubled during the year, though Freeport said its integrated smelting and leaching operations provide some insulation from acid-price volatility.
The company maintained its 2026 net unit cash-cost guidance of $1.90 per pound, supported by molybdenum by-product credits. It expects capital expenditures of about $4.4 billion in 2026 and $5.2 billion in 2027, with the 2027 estimate up approximately $400 million from its July outlook. The increase reflects additional mining equipment investments, inflation and costs associated with completing the Atlantic Copper CirCular project.
Freeport’s 2027 capital outlook does not include spending for the potential Bagdad expansion. Robertson said the company’s capital allocation priorities remain a strong balance sheet, shareholder distributions and investments in growth. Since adopting its financial policy in 2021, Freeport has distributed $6.6 billion through dividends and share repurchases, including about $1 billion in 2026 to date.
Using average projected 2027 and 2028 volumes and current cost estimates, Freeport modeled annual EBITDA of more than $12 billion at copper prices of $5 per pound and $19.5 billion at $7 per pound. The company said every $0.10-per-pound change in copper prices would affect annual EBITDA by approximately $390 million during that period.
About Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE: FCX) is a global mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of copper. Copper is used extensively in electrical wiring, construction, transportation, renewable energy systems, and other industrial applications. The company also produces gold and molybdenum, a metal used in steelmaking and other industrial processes, as well as certain other byproducts.
Freeport-McMoRan operates a portfolio of mining and processing assets in North America, South America, and Indonesia.
