Bayer Aktiengesellschaft Touts Pharma Turnaround at JPM Healthcare, Lifts 2025 Outlook Despite Xarelto LOE

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:BAYN) pharma head Stefan Oelrich told attendees at the 2026 J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference that the company’s pharmaceutical business is showing “clear proof points” of a turnaround, pointing to updated 2025 guidance, a reshaped product portfolio following major loss-of-exclusivity headwinds, and what he described as improved R&D productivity and organizational efficiency.

2025 performance through nine months: guidance upgraded amid Xarelto LOE

Oelrich referenced Bayer’s results for the first nine months of 2025, saying the company upgraded its sales guidance from a range of -4% to -1% to “some slight growth,” despite experiencing what he characterized as the “full hit” of loss of exclusivity for Xarelto. He said the company also confirmed its margin goal despite losing a high-margin product, while noting currency headwinds.

He attributed performance primarily to growth in newer products and stability in the broader portfolio. Oelrich highlighted:

• Nubeqa reaching EUR 1.7 billion in the first nine months, which he called “phenomenal growth.”
• Kerendia gaining momentum, which he described as the next “blockbuster in the making.”
• Eylea showing volume growth and progress in conversion to the 8 mg dose, but facing continued pricing pressure.
• Xarelto tracking within guidance, with an estimated EUR 1–1.5 billion sales loss in 2025.
• A “remarkably stable” base business, including strong growth in radiology and continued growth in women’s healthcare.

Five late-stage growth catalysts: launches and near-term data

Oelrich framed Bayer Pharma’s near-term strategy around “five major growth catalysts” introduced over roughly two years, or expected to be introduced soon.

Nubeqa (prostate cancer): Oelrich said Nubeqa is approaching a leading position in prostate cancer for new patients and is continuing to expand geographically, with launches in “over 90 countries.” He said the company expects “an unbroken trend” and described 2026 as “a very strong year” for the product, citing efficacy and tolerability.

Kerendia (nonsteroidal MRA): He described Kerendia as “class-defining,” noting expansion from chronic kidney disease in diabetic patients into heart failure, which he said has validated Bayer’s strategy. He also highlighted additional data generation, including in type 1 diabetes, an area he said has lacked evidence for decades. During Q&A, CFO Olivier (introduced as Bayer’s CFO) said Kerendia was growing “80%–90% this year.”

Acoramidis (BridgeBio partnership): Oelrich said the BridgeBio partnership enabled a rapid launch, with the product reaching “50+% new to brand Rx” three months after launch. He said adoption may be gradual due to limited switching, but argued Bayer has a path to leadership in Europe and “exceed EUR 1 billion in sales” over time. In Q&A, management said reimbursement has progressed quickly in Europe and cited Denmark, where Bayer “won the national tender,” resulting in “100% of new prescriptions” in that market.

Elinzanetant (menopause management): Oelrich discussed Bayer’s non-hormonal approach to treating vasomotor symptoms and said the product has a differentiated label supported by four pivotal trials and an “attractive safety profile.” He cautioned, however, that the category is “tricky,” requires significant physician education, and should not be assumed to be an easy opportunity. In Q&A, he said early physician feedback suggests differentiation, early uptake includes prescribers not using other non-hormonal options, and early payer access has been positive; he also noted the product launched in December.

Asundexian (oral Factor XI inhibitor): Oelrich said Bayer has “the first proven oral Factor XI inhibitor proven to reduce significantly the risk of a secondary stroke,” with data to be presented in about three weeks and a webinar planned for early February in New Orleans. He outlined the unmet need, citing 12 million new strokes annually and elevated secondary-stroke risk. Management said they are engaging regulators and “hope to have approval as soon as the end of this year.” In Q&A, executives said phase 3 objectives included establishing safety on combination therapy without increased bleeding risk and representing the broader stroke population; they cited more than 12,000 patients in the trial and said overall experience across studies is nearing 30,000 patients.

Eylea: mixed pricing outcomes as biosimilars expand

Asked about Eylea dynamics, Oelrich said the situation differs materially by country, especially because Bayer does not have the U.S. market for the product. He described “very negative pricing actions” in some markets such as Canada, while citing strong volume and share performance for the 8 mg product in France. He said pricing is a “mixed bag” and suggested the first two quarters of 2026 may provide clearer insight, while declining to offer more specific forecasts.

Pipeline and R&D focus: radiopharma and gene therapy readouts

Oelrich and R&D head Christian Rommel pointed to what they called improved productivity and “movement” through the pipeline, with focus areas including cardiovascular, oncology, and cell and gene therapy targeting neurodegenerative diseases and cardiovascular conditions.

Oelrich said Bayer expects proof-of-concept results in 2026 for:

• PSMA actinium radiopharmaceuticals in prostate cancer (phase 1 proof-of-concept readout expected).
• A gene therapy approach for patients with “very, very severe heart failure” on transplant waitlists (phase 2 proof-of-concept readout expected).

In discussion of actinium supply, management acknowledged sourcing is challenging, said Bayer is working with multiple suppliers, and emphasized the need to ensure material availability if clinical results support broader use.

Financial and growth outlook: “30 and 30” margin ambition

During Q&A, Bayer’s CFO said the company still expects additional Xarelto erosion through 2026 and suggested sales could bottom at a “EUR 900 million–EUR 1 billion” floor over the coming two years. He described Eylea’s loss-of-exclusivity impact as “softer” and said the growth profile improves as these dynamics fade.

Oelrich said Bayer expects 2026 to be the “last flattish year,” followed by mid-single-digit growth starting in 2027 and extending into the 2030s, driven by what management characterized as multiple blockbuster opportunities across the portfolio. He also reiterated a longer-term profitability goal, saying Bayer expects to stabilize margins despite Xarelto’s decline and aims to expand margins again “in the 30-ish territory by 2030,” calling it “30 and 30.”

On business development, Oelrich said Bayer has prioritized deleveraging but expects greater capacity for deal-making as cash flows and credit metrics improve. He emphasized a preference for early-stage deals, adding that Bayer signed 20 deals in the prior year that may not have been broadly visible externally.

About Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:BAYN)

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft, together its subsidiaries, operates as a life science company worldwide. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments. The Pharmaceuticals segment offers prescription products primarily for cardiology and women's health care; specialty therapeutics in the areas of oncology, hematology, and ophthalmology; and diagnostic imaging equipment and digital solutions, and contrast agents, as well as cell and gene therapy. The Consumer Health segment markets nonprescription over-the-counter medicines for self-medication and self-care; and solutions for nutritional supplements, allergy, cough and cold, dermatology, pain and cardiovascular risk prevention, and digestive health.