Vistra (NYSE:VST) Announces Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.27 EPS

Vistra (NYSE:VST) posted its quarterly earnings data on Friday. The company reported $3.25 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $2.98 by $0.27, FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $6.35 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.03 billion. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Vistra posted record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.38 billion, up more than 50% year over year, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance to $7.1–$7.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $4.3–$4.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow before growth. The company also introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7–$8.5 billion and $4.3–$5.1 billion, respectively.
• Vistra closed its acquisition of Cogentrix, adding about 5,500 MW of generation capacity for a net purchase price of approximately $4 billion. The company expects high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion near term, rising to double digits beginning in 2029.
• Management cited softer ERCOT forward prices and slower-than-expected near-term load growth, amid data-center audits and permitting delays. Vistra said its long-term outlook is unchanged and expects load growth of 4%–6% in ERCOT and 2%–3% in PJM through 2030, but the timing of new connections remains uncertain.
• The company sees a path to roughly 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, based on current forward curves and an assumed allocation of excess cash to repurchases. Vistra said the estimate includes about $3 billion in annual buybacks and already-announced projects, but not potential additional growth contracts.
• Vistra said customer discussions for nuclear and gas contracts remain active, citing opportunities across its roughly 50,000-MW fleet and existing projects including the Meta agreement at Perry and an Odessa gas-plant PPA. Management emphasized that projects must meet its mid-teens-or-higher return threshold.

Vistra Stock Performance

Shares of NYSE:VST traded up $11.64 during trading on Friday, hitting $124.53. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 12,508,216 shares, compared to its average volume of 7,060,803. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a quick ratio of 0.87. The firm has a market cap of $41.80 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.04 and a beta of 1.37. The company has a 50-day moving average of $143.88 and a 200-day moving average of $152.65. Vistra has a 12 month low of $110.89 and a 12 month high of $196.80.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be paid a dividend of $0.2310 per share. The ex-dividend date is Tuesday, December 22nd. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.7%. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is presently 15.54%.

Vistra announced that its board has approved a stock buyback plan on Friday, November 6th that allows the company to repurchase $1.50 billion in outstanding shares. This buyback authorization allows the company to purchase up to 3.3% of its stock through open market purchases. Share buyback plans are typically a sign that the company’s board believes its shares are undervalued.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of equities analysts have weighed in on the stock. Zacks Research downgraded shares of Vistra from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research note on Wednesday, October 14th. KeyCorp cut Vistra from an “overweight” rating to a “sector weight” rating in a research report on Wednesday. HSBC began coverage on Vistra in a research note on Thursday, October 22nd. They issued a “buy” rating and a $190.00 price target on the stock. Siebert Williams Shank began coverage on Vistra in a research report on Friday, October 2nd. They set a “buy” rating and a $202.00 price objective for the company. Finally, TD Cowen lowered their price objective on Vistra from $222.00 to $221.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, August 19th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have given a Buy rating, three have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $205.00.

Insider Buying and Selling at Vistra

In other news, EVP Scott Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total transaction of $6,747,488.08. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 331,137 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $50,273,219.34. The trade was a 11.83% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James A. Burke bought 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was bought at an average cost of $135.25 per share, for a total transaction of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the acquisition, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their position. Additional details regarding this purchase are available in the official SEC disclosure. Company insiders own 0.92% of the company’s stock.

Vistra News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reported third-quarter EPS of $3.25, above the $2.98 consensus, and net income of $1.14 billion versus FactSet’s $1.01 billion estimate. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose more than 50% year over year to $2.378 billion. Vistra Q3 results
• Positive Sentiment: The company raised its 2026 outlook and announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, supporting expectations for stronger earnings and shareholder returns. Vistra raises outlook and announces buyback
• Positive Sentiment: Sanford C. Bernstein reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating and set a $181 price target, signaling substantial upside from the cited share price. Bernstein rating and target
• Negative Sentiment: Investors still face uncertainty over potential Texas policy changes and their effects on data-center development and electricity demand. KeyBanc’s recent downgrade reflected those concerns. KeyBanc downgrade and Texas policy risks

About Vistra

Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company that generates and sells electricity and provides related services to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Its retail businesses offer electricity plans and energy services through brands that include TXU Energy and Ambit Energy.

The company owns and operates a diverse generation fleet, including natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar facilities, as well as battery energy storage systems. Its operations serve customers and wholesale power markets across multiple U.S.