VEON (NASDAQ: VEON) raises its outlook midpoints and digital revenue jumps 45.9%

What happened

VEON Ltd. (NASDAQ: VEON) raised the midpoint of its 2026 outlook and reported third-quarter revenue up 17.2% to $1.31 billion.

EBITDA rose 10.1% to $577 million. Digital revenue climbed 45.9% to $355 million and made up 27.2% of group revenue, up from 21.8% a year earlier.

Over nine months, revenue grew 17.1% to $3.78 billion and EBITDA grew 11.0% to $1.65 billion.

VEON now expects 2026 revenue growth of 16% to 18%, up from 15% to 18%. It expects EBITDA growth of 10% to 12%, up from 9% to 12%. Capex intensity excluding Ukraine stays at 15% to 17% of revenues.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Total revenue, 3Q26	$1.31 billion	from $1.12 billion, +17.2%	SEC Form 6-K, earnings release
EBITDA, 3Q26	$577 million	from $524 million, +10.1%	SEC Form 6-K, earnings release
Digital revenue, 3Q26	$355 million	from $244 million, +45.9%	SEC Form 6-K, earnings release
Free cash flow, 3Q26	$201 million	from $303 million, -33.8%	SEC Form 6-K, earnings release
Net debt excluding leases to LTM EBITDAaL, Sep. 30, 2026	1.05x	from 1.13x	SEC Form 6-K, earnings release
Cash spent on ADS repurchases under the new program	$112.5 million		SEC Form 6-K, earnings release

Read more: VEON (VEON) company research

Where the growth came from

Telecom and infrastructure revenue rose 9.2% to $952 million. Mobile ARPU rose 4.7% to $1.8. The release credits disciplined pricing, customer growth and higher data usage.

Digital grows faster but earns lower margins. Digital EBITDA rose 54.5% to $128 million at a 36.0% margin. Telecom and infrastructure EBITDA rose only 1.8% to $449 million. The group EBITDA margin slid to 44.1% from 47.0%, which the release blames on the mix of lower-margin digital businesses.

Pakistan was the largest digital contributor at $209 million, up 50.5%. Financial Services revenue rose 54.2% to $166 million. Kazakhstan EBITDA fell 18.4% to $94 million, and its margin was 40.6% against 53.9% a year earlier.

Since the first quarter, enterprise identity and credentials management revenue is reported within VEON Digital Enterprise. It was $45 million in both 3Q26 and 3Q25, and prior periods were reclassified.

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Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that VEON works if mobile data demand keeps paying off through its networks and country risk does not eat the value created locally. The quarter supports that view. Telecom revenue and ARPU rose, and cash moved up to headquarters.

Operating companies sent up net dividends of $90.1 million after withholding tax in the third quarter and $194.3 million over nine months. Cash at headquarters was $755 million at Sept. 30, down from $968 million at the end of June. Net debt excluding leases was 1.05 times LTM EBITDAaL, down from 1.13 times a year earlier.

VEON has repurchased 1.55 million ADSs for $112.5 million under a program capped at 2.9 million ADSs, or 3.9% of outstanding shares. It cancelled 1.08 million ADSs, 1.5% of issued shares, effective Oct. 20. It says it will cancel all repurchased shares. That follows $200 million of cumulative buybacks since August 2024.

What cuts the other way

Free cash flow fell 33.8% to $201 million in the quarter. The year-earlier quarter included $230 million of asset disposal proceeds against $61 million this year. Excluding disposals, free cash flow grew 91.8%.

Nine-month free cash flow was $520 million, up 0.1%. It included $356 million of disposal proceeds against $514 million a year earlier. Excluding disposals, it reached $164 million against $6 million.

One-time items also distort profit comparisons. Third-quarter net profit of $225 million compares with a loss of $127 million a year earlier. That earlier quarter took a $259 million non-cash charge tied to the Kyivstar Group listing and the sale of Kyrgyzstan operations.

This year's quarter includes a $31 million gain from the Amdocs transaction. Like-for-like profit growth was 2.4%.

Nine-month diluted earnings per ADS of $5.74 fell 26.5%. The 2025 period included a $502 million gain on the Pakistan tower sale. Like-for-like revenue and EBITDA growth for the quarter were 15.8% and 9.8%, a little below the reported rates.

What's next

VEON holds its Capital Markets Day on Nov. 16. Group CEO Kaan Terzioglu said the company will show how it plans to keep compounding value.

The case strengthens if free cash flow excluding disposals keeps growing and the raised outlook ranges hold. It weakens if cash conversion falls back once disposal proceeds fade.

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