Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) executives highlighted higher-than-guided 2025 earnings, an expanded five-year capital plan, and continued progress on the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project during the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Management also introduced 2026 earnings guidance and discussed demand growth in Virginia, particularly tied to data center load, alongside recent regulatory and project developments across its jurisdictions.
2025 results and 2026 earnings outlook
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Steven Ridge said the company delivered full-year 2025 operating earnings of $3.42 per share and operating earnings excluding RNG 45Z credits of $3.33 per share, both above the midpoint of prior guidance. Ridge added that full-year 2025 GAAP earnings were $3.45 per share, higher than operating EPS.
For 2026, Dominion Energy guided to operating earnings per share (excluding RNG 45Z credit income) of $3.40 to $3.60, with a midpoint of $3.50. Ridge said the midpoint implies a 6.1% increase versus the comparable 2025 guidance midpoint of $3.30, despite 2026 being a “double outage year” at Millstone. Including RNG 45Z income, total operating earnings guidance midpoint was presented as $3.57 per share.
On RNG 45Z credits, Ridge said expectations reflect updated credit scoring and lower production assumptions, and the company is still awaiting final regulations. In Q&A, management attributed updated assumptions primarily to a change in CI scoring tied to a newly published GREET model for 2026 and beyond, while noting that 2025 credits were booked under the rules in place during 2025.
Five-year capital plan raised to about $65 billion
Ridge said Dominion increased its five-year total capital estimate from $50 billion to approximately $65 billion, representing a 30% increase. He said more than 90% of the increase is tied to Dominion Energy Virginia, and nearly two-thirds of the updated capital spend is expected to be eligible for recovery through rider mechanisms, subject to regulatory approval.
Ridge said the company updated the compounded annual growth rate of its investment base to about 10%. He also discussed the generation component of the plan, referencing gas generation in the company’s integrated resource plans that includes two combustion turbines (CTs) and three combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), with the CCGTs projected to enter service from 2032 through 2034. Ridge noted Dominion has secured turbine slots for each project.
To fund the expanded plan, Ridge outlined a financing approach in which nearly 60% of five-year investing cash flows and projected dividends are expected to be satisfied by operating cash flows. Roughly 10% is expected to come from net hybrid issuance, around 10% from common equity through DRIP and ATM programs, and the remainder (about 20%) from long- and short-term debt.
Long-term earnings growth reaffirmed, with higher-range bias starting in 2028
Ridge said Dominion reaffirmed its long-term operating earnings per share growth guidance of 5% to 7% annually off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $3.30 per share, on an ex-45Z basis. He added the company now expects to achieve the upper half of that range beginning in 2028, citing “improved business fundamentals,” including more regulated investment, partly offset by headwinds such as lower RNG production, lower future day rate assumptions for its Jones Act wind turbine installation vessel Charybdis, and higher financing costs.
Ridge also addressed why the company’s rate base growth and long-term earnings growth differ, citing equity dilution from planned issuance, increased parent-level interest expense, and the timing mismatch between rate base growth and cash flow from long-lead projects, particularly gas generation that does not enter service until the early 2030s.
On the dividend, Ridge reiterated the company will revisit the dividend per share growth rate when it achieves a peer-aligned payout ratio. In response to an analyst question, he said the company has not made a final decision on payout ratio changes, while acknowledging broader peer trends toward lower payout ratios as a funding source for larger capital plans.
CVOW over 70% complete; first power expected by end of March
Chair, President, and CEO Bob Blue said CVOW is now over 70% complete and remains on track for first power to the grid by the end of March. He reported installation of 176 monopiles was completed more quickly than expected, transition pieces were more than 70% installed, and the third and final offshore substation was installed the prior Saturday. Blue said deepwater export cables are installed, inter-array cable installation is on track, remaining cabling is fabricated, and the majority is landed in Virginia. Onshore work to accept first power was said to be complete.
The project budget stands at $11.5 billion, including $155 million of unused contingency, according to Blue. He also noted the company continues to provide updates on potential tariff exposure across discrete tariff categories and durations, and said Dominion is reviewing a recent Supreme Court tariff ruling and will update the project budget in the future as appropriate.
Blue discussed early turbine installation progress and noted the company is deliberately moving more slowly in initial iterations. He cited winter weather downtime and the need to occasionally pause installation to refine procedures. Blue also described an incident in which a “human performance error,” unrelated to Charybdis operations, damaged a blade after installation on the first turbine, requiring removal and replacement and resulting in an iteration that took almost two weeks. He said the company does not expect that type of delay to repeat and cautioned against drawing broad conclusions from early installation iterations.
He added the budget includes installation schedule contingency for weather delays through July 2027. If installation extends beyond that, the company estimated each additional quarter would add $150 million to $200 million to project cost, with a portion allocated to its financing partner. In Q&A, Blue said the company expects the majority of turbine installations in 2026 and some into 2027, and referenced a planning assumption of about 2.25 days per installation over time, with winter conditions expected to slow progress.
Demand growth, data centers, and recent regulatory developments
Management emphasized demand growth in Virginia. Ridge said weather-normal sales in Dominion Energy Virginia’s load-serving entity increased 5.4% in 2025, and that all of the top 20 peak demand days in the Dominion zone have occurred in the last 14 months.
Blue said Dominion’s data center pipeline totaled over 48 GW in various stages of contracting as of December 2025, up from about 47 GW as of September. He said the company’s demand forecast is based on signed ESAs and CLOAs rather than early-stage letters of authorization, and that forecasted data center demand through 2045 is more than covered by existing signed ESAs and CLOAs.
Blue also highlighted customer affordability metrics, stating that current customer rates at Dominion Energy Virginia and Dominion Energy South Carolina are lower than the national average by 4% and 12%, respectively. He said typical residential rates are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of about 2.6% (Virginia) and 2.8% (South Carolina). He also referenced customer assistance programs including budget billing, energy savings programs, and EnergyShare.
The call included multiple regulatory and business updates, including:
- Virginia biennial review: Blue said the Virginia State Corporation Commission issued a final order on Nov. 25 approving large load provisions intended to mitigate stranded asset risk and ensure fair cost allocation among customers.
- Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center: Blue said the Virginia commission approved a CPCN and rider for the approximately 1 GW gas-fired facility expected to cost about $1.5 billion and enter service in 2029; the commission later affirmed the order and denied a reconsideration petition on Feb. 12.
- PJM transmission awards: Blue said PJM selected a portfolio of transmission projects totaling over $5 billion, with in-service dates through 2032, calling it Dominion Energy Virginia’s largest proposed investment since PJM began its open window process. Management said the portion through 2030 is included in the updated capital plan.
- South Carolina rate case: Blue said Dominion Energy South Carolina filed an electric rate case on Jan. 2 to support $1.4 billion invested since 2023, with a decision expected in June and rates effective in July.
- Millstone: Blue said the plant supplied over 90% of Connecticut’s carbon-free electricity and achieved a capacity factor of over 91% in 2025. He said 55% of output is under a fixed-price contract through late 2029 and the remaining output is significantly de-risked by hedging. He also noted a Connecticut DEEP zero-carbon RFP for which Millstone is eligible, with bids due in March.
Blue concluded by reiterating the company’s focus on execution, highlighting record safety performance metrics in 2025, reaffirmed earnings growth guidance, and the expanded capital plan aimed at meeting reliability needs and growing demand.
About Dominion Energy (NYSE:D)
Dominion Energy, Inc, headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, is a diversified energy company that primarily operates regulated electricity and natural gas utilities and develops energy infrastructure. The company’s core activities include the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers, as well as the purchase, storage and delivery of natural gas. Dominion combines traditional utility operations with energy infrastructure businesses to provide essential services across its service territories.
Dominion’s electricity portfolio spans multiple technologies and fuel sources, including nuclear, natural gas-fired generation and renewable resources such as utility-scale solar and wind.
